XRP’s Path to $3: How a $50 Million SEC Settlement Could Ignite the Rally
Ripple’s newly announced $50 million settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reignited debate over whether XRP can surge to the $3 level. The agreement, formally filed on May 8, 2025, would conclude a nearly three-year legal battle, reduce Ripple’s penalty from $125 million to $50 million, and lead to the lifting of certain injunctions—factors that together may unlock fresh buying pressure and institutional interest.
Legal Clarity as a Price Catalyst
The joint court motion lays out two critical developments: the vacation of Ripple’s injunction on XRP sales to institutional investors and the release of $125 million held in escrow. By clearing these regulatory overhangs, Ripple removes a key barrier that has deterred banks and asset managers from deploying capital into XRP. Historically, regulatory clarity has preceded major price rebounds: Bitcoin’s rally to new highs in 2021 followed the approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs, and Ethereum’s breakout in early 2025 tracked spot-ETH ETF filings. XRP could follow a similar trajectory.
Technical Setup: Targeting $3.14 and Beyond
On the chart, XRP has broken out of a four-month descending channel, surging nearly 10% on announcement day to trade around $2.30. The next logical resistance sits at $2.45, followed by the psychological $3.00 mark and the measured-move target of $3.14—calculated from the channel height. Increasing open interest and a rising funding rate on futures markets further underscore bullish leverage building around XRP.
On-Chain Metrics Support Further Upside
On-chain data paints a supportive backdrop. The MVRV ratio of 2.22 suggests XRP remains undervalued relative to historical norms, indicating room for appreciation before overheating. Meanwhile, whale accumulation has ticked higher, and exchange reserves are drawing down as long-term holders withdraw coins from trading platforms—classic precursors to sustained rallies .
Institutional Interest and ETF Prospects
The settlement’s injunction lift could pave the way for spot XRP ETFs in the U.S.—an evolution already hinted at by Europe’s recent approval of a spot XRP ETF in Brazil and private ETF filings from major issuers. ETF approval would institutionalize XRP demand, potentially mirroring the billions in inflows witnessed by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products in early 2025.
Risks and Buffers
While the tone is bullish, several risks could delay the $3 breakout. A court denial of the settlement, renewed SEC appeals, or broader market corrections could apply downward pressure. However, Ripple’s $50 million payment is non-admission-of-wrongdoing, and the SEC’s dropped appeal of the public-sale ruling signals increased regulatory accommodation.
Conclusion
With legal clarity, technical momentum, and growing institutional pathways aligning, XRP’s advance toward $3 looks increasingly plausible. The $50 million settlement is more than a headline—it removes a longstanding obstacle, encouraging both retail and institutional re-entry. If XRP can hold above its new support near $2.30 and break $2.45 convincingly, the runway toward $3.00 (and beyond to $3.14) will be wide open. Traders will nonetheless watch SEC approval timelines and macro risk factors, but on current evidence, XRP’s rally to $3 may be just over the horizon.
