XRP News: Will Judge Torres Unlock the Door to an XRP-Spot ETF While BTC at $103k
The fate of an XRP spot ETF in the U.S. now rests largely with Judge Analisa Torres, whose upcoming settlement ruling in the SEC vs. Ripple case may lift key injunctions that currently bar institutional XRP sales. With Bitcoin trading near $103,000, market participants are watching closely: a favorable decision could clear the pathway for multiple pending XRP-spot ETF filings to move forward, while a denial or appeal by the SEC would likely delay any approvals until late 2025 or beyond. Below, we explore the legal mechanism at play, the ETF deadlines on the calendar, market sentiment, and the key risks that could determine whether Judge Torres truly “unlocks the door” to an XRP-spot ETF.
The Legal Linchpin: Judge Torres’ Settlement Ruling
1.1 Vacating the Injunction
In July 2023, Judge Torres ruled that retail sales of XRP on public exchanges are not securities, but that institutional sales by Ripple did require registration under the Securities Act. The remaining injunction bars institutional investors from buying XRP directly. On May 8, 2025, the SEC and Ripple submitted a joint motion asking Judge Torres to:
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Vacate the injunction on institutional XRP sales
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Reduce Ripple’s penalty from $125 million to $50 million
If granted, these changes would remove the legal overhang preventing asset managers from holding XRP in spot ETFs.
1.2 Potential Outcomes
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Approval of Settlement: The injunction lift would allow issuers like 21Shares, Bitwise, and Grayscale to move forward with spot-XRP ETF listings—pending SEC sign-off—potentially as early as Q4 2025.
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Rejection or Appeal: A refusal or renewed SEC appeal would keep the injunction intact, forcing ETF applicants to await a Second Circuit decision or further court rulings, likely delaying any U.S. spot-XRP ETF until 2026.
2. ETF Filing Deadlines and Market Odds
2.1 Intermediate Deadlines
Several issuers face intermediate review deadlines in the coming weeks:
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21Shares XRP ETF: Decision by June 2025
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Bitwise XRP ETF: 240-day review window extends into late Q3 2025
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Franklin, WisdomTree, Grayscale XRP Trust Conversion: Rolling deadlines from June through October 2025
2.2 Market-Priced Probabilities
Prediction markets like Polymarket currently peg the odds of a spot-XRP ETF approval by October 2025 at 80%, down slightly from 87% in March but up from 68% in late April.
3. Price Implications: BTC at $103K vs. XRP’s Potential
Bitcoin’s resilience around $103,000 has fueled broader ETF optimism. A spot-XRP ETF approval could trigger a similar “ETF wave” for XRP:
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Short-Term: XRP might test resistance at $3.00, mirroring bullish breakouts seen in ETH and BTC post-ETF approval.
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Medium-Term: Renewed institutional demand could compress circulating XRP supply, driving prices above $4.00 if inflows match those of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
4. Risks and Challenges
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SEC Appeal: Should the SEC file an appeal against Judge Torres’ settlement approval, ETF plans would stall until appeals courts resolve the matter—likely into 2026.
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Regulatory Shifts: A new SEC chair or evolving policy priorities could reintroduce uncertainty, even after a favorable ruling.
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Market Volatility: A sharp pullback in Bitcoin (from $103K) could dampen ETF momentum and reduce appetite for altcoin ETFs, including XRP.
Conclusion
Judge Torres’ upcoming decision is the pivotal factor for an XRP-spot ETF in the U.S. If she vacates the institutional-sales injunction and approves the $50 million settlement, issuers will likely secure ETF approvals by late 2025, unleashing fresh institutional demand for XRP. In contrast, any setback or SEC appeal could push approval timelines well into 2026, forcing XRP to rely on international ETF launches and secondary-market dynamics. As Bitcoin holds near $103,000, XRP watchers around the globe will be tuned in to see if Judge Torres truly “unlocks the door” to the next chapter in XRP’s market evolution.
