Gemini Plans Prediction Markets Entry With CFTC Approval
Gemini Space Station Inc. filed for approval with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in May to launch a derivatives exchange. The exchange registered an entity called “Gemini Titan” for the operation of a designated contract market. This strategic move positions the Winklevoss-led company to compete directly with established players in the prediction market sector.
The proposed exchange would allow users to trade event-based contracts on sports, politics, and economic outcomes. Sources familiar with the matter indicate that Gemini aims to launch these products as soon as regulatory approval is secured. The exchange plans to offer services directly rather than through third-party partnerships. This approach differentiates Gemini from competitors like Robinhood, which opted to partner with existing platforms.
CFTC Approval Process for Gemini Prediction Market Contracts
The CFTC approval process can take several months or even years. Progress has slowed amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which may further delay new regulatory reviews. Prediction market contracts are classified as derivatives because their value stems from future event outcomes. This classification places Gemini’s application under CFTC jurisdiction rather than traditional securities regulation.
Earlier this year, the CFTC and Department of Justice formally closed investigations into Polymarket and dropped pending actions against Kalshi. This policy shift signals a more favorable regulatory environment for prediction markets. The Trump administration has shown support for bringing event-based contracts under formal oversight. These developments create an opening for new entrants seeking CFTC-regulated prediction market licenses.
Prediction Market Competition Intensifies Among Crypto Exchanges
Gemini’s entry would place it in direct competition with Kalshi, which already operates under a CFTC license, and Polymarket. Weekly trading volume in prediction markets hit an all-time high of $2 billion in the final week of October. The surging activity demonstrates growing consumer interest in event-based financial products.
Coinbase has also signaled plans to launch event contracts as part of its Everything Exchange strategy. CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are investing heavily in the space. Kalshi’s weekly trading volumes surged above $1.2 billion in late October, while Polymarket also broke the billion-dollar mark. Other platforms like Jupiter Exchange, Hollywood.com, and Underdog are developing their own prediction offerings.
Gemini Seeks Revenue Growth Through Prediction Market Expansion
The company posted a $282 million net loss in the first six months of 2025, nearly double its $158 million deficit for all of 2024. Revenue fell to $68.6 million in the first half of 2025 from $74.3 million in the year-earlier period. Following its September initial public offering, Gemini revealed plans to diversify into financial forecasting products to attract new retail and institutional users.
Shares have fallen roughly 49% since the company’s mid-September IPO. The stock opened at $32 on its first trading day after pricing at $28 per share. Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Tiger Research, noted that while Gemini has validated its model through IPO, a breakout business like prediction markets is essential for sustained growth.
The exchange’s move reflects a broader trend among financial firms racing to capture the growing prediction market space. Platforms like DraftKings and Sam Altman’s World are betting on mainstream interest in regulated event-driven speculation. Gemini’s native crypto integration could offer seamless on-ramps for its predominantly institutional user base.
Conclusion
Gemini’s application to launch prediction market contracts represents a strategic pivot for the exchange amid financial headwinds. The timeline for full launch remains contingent on CFTC approval. Competition in the sector continues to intensify as both crypto-native and traditional finance firms recognize the potential of event-based trading.
