Ethereum Price: Will Open Interest Drop Price To November 2024 Levels
Ethereum’s futures open interest has tumbled back to November 2024 levels, raising concerns that ETH’s price could retrace toward those lows around $1,800–$1,900. Over the past four months, open interest in ETH futures across major exchanges has shrunk by more than 40%, reflecting waning speculative appetite and a shift toward risk aversion in crypto markets. This contraction has coincided with Ethereum’s drop from $4,000 in December 2024 to below $2,000 today—underscoring the tight link between leveraged positions and spot price action.
Open Interest Decline: Mechanics and Magnitude
Open interest measures the total number of outstanding futures contracts. On Coinglass, ETH futures OI has fallen from over $32 billion in late January 2025 to under $20 billion, a level last seen in November 2024. Similar patterns emerged on Binance, where ETH open interest plunged from an all-time high of $7.78 billion to around $3.1 billion—a near 60% drop since December 2024. Such a rapid unwind indicates that many leveraged long positions have been closed out, likely through forced liquidations as prices fell, creating downward price pressure.
Spot Price Reaction: Echoes of Late 2024
Ethereum’s spot price has mirrored this decline. After surging to $4,000 in November 2024, ETH plunged over 50% to test lows near $1,900 in February 2025. Today, ETH trades below $2,000, reflecting a lull in buying interest and broader market uncertainty. Historically, sharp drops in open interest often presage “capitulation washouts”—followed by spot-price lows—because leveraged traders are forced to sell into falling markets .
Will ETH Revisit November 2024 Lows?
Two scenarios emerge:
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Continuation Lower: If open interest continues to decline toward $15 billion and broader risk‑off sentiment endures—driven by uncertain Fed policy or trade wars, ETH could retest $1,800 and even $1,700, echoing November 2024 support levels.
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Stabilization and Rebound: Conversely, once leveraged positions are largely neutralized and open interest bottoms out, the reduced selling pressure could allow spot price to stabilize and rally. Low open interest often signals that short‑squeezes become more likely, as fewer contracts need to be covered to push prices higher.
Key Indicators to Monitor
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Funding Rates: Persistently negative ETH funding rates (currently around –0.01%) suggest that longs are paying shorts, reflecting bearish sentiment. A shift back to neutral or positive rates could indicate a return of bullish positioning .
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Exchange Balances: ETH reserves on centralized exchanges have dropped 20% since January 2025, implying that more ETH is moving to cold storage—a potentially bullish sign if it indicates long‑term accumulation .
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Macro Sentiment: Broader risk‑asset performance and treasury yields will influence Ethereum. A dovish Fed pivot could restore risk appetite and drive ETH above $2,200, mitigating the threat of a deeper retracement .
Conclusion
Ethereum’s open interest decline to November 2024 levels highlights a market in transition—one where leveraged longs have been flushed out, and spot price has retraced accordingly. Whether ETH falls back to $1,800–$1,900 depends on further positioning and macro drivers. Yet, historically, these washouts also create fertile ground for the next rally once selling pressure subsides. For traders and investors, the critical watch points are open interest, funding rates, and macroeconomic signals—each of which will help reveal if ETH’s next move is downward to retest late‑2024 lows or upward toward recovery.
