Bitcoin Defends $100K Support as Dollar Strength Tests Market Resilience
Bitcoin continues to trade precariously above the $100,000 psychological support level, facing intense selling pressure as macro uncertainty and a strengthening U.S. dollar weigh on crypto markets. The leading cryptocurrency briefly dropped to $98,944 on November 5, marking its lowest level since June 2025. With BTC currently hovering around $101,000, the crypto market faces a crucial test of whether this critical support zone can hold.
Bitcoin Price Action Reflects Mounting Pressure
Bitcoin has declined more than 8% during the week of November 4-7, breaking below $100K for the first time since late June. This correction represents a nearly 20% drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high above $126,000 reached less than a month ago. The Fear & Greed Index has plummeted to “extreme fear” levels, registering at 21, its most depressed reading since early April.
Market analysts note that Bitcoin has closed above $100,000 for 180 consecutive trading days, making this level particularly significant from both a technical and psychological perspective. The current price action suggests that traders are deleveraging their positions. Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to $24.9 billion from $26 billion the previous week, indicating reduced leverage across the market.
Strong Dollar Creates Headwinds for BTC
The U.S. dollar has shown remarkable resilience in November 2025, with the DXY index trading near 98.4, steadying after September’s lows. The dollar has appreciated approximately 9% since late September, supported by better-than-expected economic data. This strength in the greenback typically creates headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Markets are reassessing the Federal Reserve’s policy path, with expectations for rate cuts diminishing following stronger GDP data and persistent inflation above the 2% target. Policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks, particularly the European Central Bank, has further bolstered the dollar.
The macro environment remains uncertain. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has stretched into its 36th day, making it the longest in American history and amplifying volatility across all asset classes. This policy paralysis, combined with stretched market valuations, has prompted investors to seek safety in the dollar rather than alternative assets.
BTC Support Levels and Technical Analysis
Multiple $30 million long liquidation walls now fortify the $100,000 level, positioning it as a strong support zone that market participants are likely to defend aggressively. Total liquidations over the past 24 hours reached $601 million, with 65% of losses borne by long positions, confirming the impact of forced selling.
Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a correction exceeding 20% from its all-time high over five weeks, with price testing the 50-week Exponential Moving Average. If BTC fails to sustain above $102,000, the weekly bias could turn bearish. However, technical indicators suggest the market remains at a critical inflection point rather than confirming a full trend reversal.
The options market displays mixed but strongly bullish signals, with call options dominating by 64%-35% despite near-term volatility concerns. This suggests that sophisticated traders remain optimistic about potential upside, even as spot markets struggle.
November Historically Bullish for Bitcoin
Despite the challenging start to the month, historical data shows November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month of the year, delivering average returns of 42%. The fourth quarter has historically been the best quarter for BTC, averaging gains of 78.03%, which could push Bitcoin to new highs by year’s end.
Institutional buyers continue to show interest in Bitcoin at current levels. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, acquired 397 BTC at an average price of $114,771 per coin through early November, bringing the firm’s total holdings to approximately 641,205 BTC worth $68.6 billion. This ongoing accumulation by major corporate treasury firms demonstrates continued institutional confidence.
If Bitcoin can sustain above $102,000, analysts expect a potential breakout above $113,000, which could extend gains toward $116,000-$118,000 in the near term. A sustained reclaim of these higher levels would signal that the uptrend is resuming. However, failure to clear resistance zones may trigger short-term pullbacks toward $101,000 for liquidity retests.
Market Outlook and Key Resistance Levels
The Bitcoin market stands at a crossroads. The convergence of macro uncertainty, dollar strength, and technical resistance creates a challenging environment for bulls. The altcoin market has performed worse than Bitcoin, with the “altcoin season” index at 22/100, its lowest level in more than 90 days. This suggests broader weakness across crypto markets rather than Bitcoin-specific concerns.
Analysts from K33 Research note that Bitcoin is “dangerously close to this material psychological price level” of $100,000 and faces a crucial inflection point. The ability to maintain support above this level will determine whether Bitcoin can resume its bull market trajectory or faces deeper corrections.
Key resistance levels to watch include $105,000-$106,000 in the near term, with $108,000-$110,000 representing crucial zones for confirming renewed strength. A weekly close above $112,000 could invalidate bearish scenarios and pave the way for a rally to new all-time highs.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s defense of the $100K support level represents a critical moment for crypto markets. The combination of persistent macro uncertainty, a strengthening U.S. dollar, and reduced institutional flows has created significant headwinds for the leading cryptocurrency. While historical patterns suggest November could still deliver strong returns, the market must first navigate current challenges. Traders should watch dollar strength, Federal Reserve policy signals, and the $100,000 support level closely in the coming weeks to gauge Bitcoin’s next major move.
